Overall, approximately 40% of the economy has “recovered” from the shock of the pandemic, with housing among the brightest spots in the recovery, according to this month’s COVID-19 Update Webinar by Meyers Research. The “headline,” or U-3, unemployment rate, stands at 10%/11%, while the U-6 unemployment rate stands closer to 17%.
Currently, both rates are tied with those at the height of the Great Recession. From here, says Meyers Research chief economist Ali Wolf, “duration” will be what matters, as the Great Recession sustained its high unemployment rate for many years.
“I believe the next three jobs reports will tell us the direction of the economy for the next two years,” Wolf says. “If we continue to add at least 1.5 million jobs in August, that is great news for the economy … if we see the number at a million or even going negative, that should put you on high alert.”
