From the northern reaches of the Atlantic seaboard to the
Mississippi Delta region of the Gulf of Mexico coast, erosion
is in the news this summer.
In late June, an unusual summer northeaster took a big bite
out of Cape Cod's sandy beaches. The storm narrowed several
popular stretches of beach to just a few yards wide, destroyed
the nesting sites of endangered piping plovers, and signed the
death warrants for several old beachfront houses. This report
in the Boston Globe describes the storm and its effects
("
Stormy week gnaws at Outer Cape beaches," by Peter
Schworm), while this story (with photos) details the plight of
five cottages, or "camps," in the town of Chatham,
Massachusetts
("
In Chatham, an austere utopia yields to a relentless tide,"
by Brian MacQarrie). Of twelve original cottages still left on
the Chatham shore, five had to be demolished after the storm
undermined the fragile land supporting their foundations.
But this summer's Cape Cod erosion — just one more
episode in a continuing shrinkage of the Cape's seaward edge
— pales in comparison to the future in store for
coastal Louisiana, according to a recent paper by two Louisiana
State University researchers in the journal Nature Geosciences
("
Drowning of the Mississippi Delta due to insufficient sediment
supply and global sea-level rise," by Michael D. Blum and
Harry H. Roberts). The New York Times covers the story
("
Dams Are Thwarting Louisiana Marsh Restoration, Study
Says," by Cornelia Dean), as does The Christian Science
Monitor
("
Will much of New Orleans be underwater by 2100?" by Peter
N. Spotts).
In the usual course of natural events, explain Blum (LSU
Department of Geology and Geophysics) and Roberts (LSU
Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences), river deltas
like the mighty Mississippi's outflow plain are replenished by
sediment washed from the mainland by rain, and borne down the
river to be deposited at the river's mouth. But with man's
intervention, half or more of the usual sediment load the river
would naturally carry is now trapped and detained upstream,
falling out as silt in reservoirs behind artificial dams. In
short, there's just not enough mud coming down the Big Muddy to
rebuild the swampy land around the Big Easy.
"Sustaining existing delta surface area would require
18–24 billion tons of sediment, which is significantly
more than can be drawn from the Mississippi River in its
current state," report Blum and Roberts. And even if all the
upstream dams were breached and the silt allowed to flow, it
wouldn't be enough, they say — because sea levels in
the Gulf of Mexico are expected to rise. "We conclude that
significant drowning is inevitable, even if sediment loads are
restored, because sea level is now rising at least three times
faster than during delta-plain construction," the scientists
write.
Over the course of the coming century, saving the
Mississippi Delta in its current state, including New Orleans
and surrounding Parishes, is out of the question, Blum and
Roberts write. By 2100, the paper predicts, sea levels will be
2.6 to 3.9 feet higher than today. The best that can be hoped
for, the scientists say, is to salvage part of what currently
exists — and that can only happen if selected levees
upstream of New Orleans are breached, to allow the river to
carry its load of mud into existing bayous where the silt will
be trapped and retained, rather than washed far out to sea and
dumped in deep water.
For video coverage of the Louisiana coastal wetlands
situation, check out this
YouTube
video from Assignment:Earth.
Diverting the Mississippi to build wetlands and solid
ground, researchers Blum and Roberts acknowledge, is more than
just a civil engineering problem. Reports the New Orleans
Times-Picayune, "The problems with major diversions would be
both political and cultural, Roberts warned, as each diversion
would protect only a limited number of communities and would
disrupt traditional commercial and recreational fishing." The
Times-Picayune article is here
("
LSU researchers: coastal restoration projects doomed to
fail," by Mark Schleifstein).
New Orleans' tenuous future has not stopped some people from
moving back to the city, however. A U.S. Census report released
last month indicates that the city's population grew by just
over 8% last year (by far the fastest growth rate of any city
in the nation), as the total number of inhabitants jumped by
24,000. However, the 8% rebound fell far short of making up for
the exodus caused by 2005's Hurricane Katrina: New Orleans
still remains 35% short of its year 2000 census count. The
Times-Picayune covers the report here
("
New Orleans is the fastest-growing big city; population
increases 8.2 percent in year," by Michelle Krupa).
But the short run, at least, inhabitants of the imperiled
Delta region haven't given up on the idea of restoring their
protective wetlands. In late June, Louisiana Governor Bobby
Jindal cheered the release of $368 million in Federal funds to
pay for coastal wetland restoration, according to local news
station WWLT
("
Massive investment in coastal restoration spurs hope," by
Susan Edwards). Officials are aware of the Nature Geosciences
paper and its implications, but in the words of Windell Curole,
director of the South Lafourche Levee District, "Maybe,
hopefully, things will be better than what we think, but if we
stand around and do nothing then you know we have nothing but
bad times in front of us."