According to U.S. Census figures, 53% of Americans now live along
the coast — a land area that makes up just 17% of the
country. And, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA), the population of coastal and Great Lakes
counties increased by 33 million people, or 28%, between 1980 and
2003. This population shift has figured prominently in the building
boom. Coastal growth accounted for 43% of building permits for
single-family homes and 51% of permits for multifamily homes
between 1999 and 2003, with Florida and California growing the
fastest.
It's figures like these that make another trend so surprising: Two
celebrated coastal destinations — the Florida Keys and San
Diego — are losing residents. Monroe County's population
dropped 2.2%, from 78,016 to 76,329, between July 2004 and July
2005. San Diego County's population fell 0.1%, from 2,935,190 to
2,933,462.
A one-year anomaly? Not according to census figures, community
leaders, and demographers. Monroe County has lost residents every
year for the past five years, with the latest decline causing it to
be ranked eighth on the nation's Top 10 list of slowest-growing
counties (behind Choctaw, Ala.). Meanwhile, the county's schools
lost 10% of their students between October 2004 and October 2005,
says Virginia Panico, president of the Key West Chamber of
Commerce.
Cooling off. Will high home prices and rising
insurance costs stall the migration to the coasts?
San Diego County's population has changed little since 2003 after
several years of breakneck growth, census figures show. That's
mirrored throughout coastal California, where growth in recent
years has slowed or stalled, reports Hans Johnson, a demographer
with the Public Policy Institute of California.
Residents and experts attribute these population losses to one
other trait the two communities share: sky-high housing
prices.
Pricey digs lose luster. While complaints about housing costs
pushing out low-income residents are hardly new, prices appear to
have reached the level that they're also motivating well-off
residents to stay away or cash out.
David Lane, a retired creative director for an advertising firm,
put his Key West three-bedroom, three-bath home with a pool up for
sale for $1.5 million last January. At age 61, he fears the
consequences of a major hurricane on an asset that, thanks to its
rocketing rise in value, has become a substantial part of his
retirement portfolio. It's too significant to risk on a storm, he
says.
Keys residents are also facing spiraling hurricane insurance
premiums and what might be termed "hurricane weariness." Keys
residents had to evacuate six times in the 2005 and 2004 summers
alone, while they pay the highest windstorm insurance rates in
Florida. Lane reports an annual windstorm premium totaling $12,700,
and Panico confirms: "Windstorm insurance is our second worst
enemy" after high housing costs.
It's not over till it's over. Do the latest numbers from these two
counties signal an end to the migration to the coasts? Stan Smith,
director of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the
University of Florida, doesn't think so. "Momentum has a big
impact," he says. "Things that were happening during the last
decade are probably happening again this decade."
But there's no question that given enough time, major population
patterns do shift, Smith notes. For example, the south-to-north
migration that dominated the late 1800s and much of the 1900s has
reversed itself in the past few decades, and this may be the
beginning of another reversal. According to NOAA, between 1990 and
2003, inland counties grew faster nationally than coastal counties,
even though coastal counties still dominate in total population.
— Aaron Hoover